A Conservative's Musings on All Things Political

Newt Gingrich: Back to the Future in 2012

Gordon Olivant

May 11, 2011

Later today Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich will announce he is a candidate for President of the United States in 2012. Newt Gingrich is a formidable individual with a record which would on paper make him an ideal candidate. He is a political strategist of the first order who literally created the republican revolution of 1994 and in designing the Contract with America defined a pattern for defining a mandate and nationalizing congressional elections. Beyond his electoral success, Newt is considered one of the leading policy wonks, something many candidates clearly are not and a stream on innovative ideas on areas as diverse as health care, energy policy and new technologies. Lastly Newt is a fighter, a skill which serves any presidential candidate well.

Former Speaker of the House of Representitives Newt Gingrich

However there are other sides to Newt Gingrich which we cannot forget and will be brought to light during the primaries which will not be so flattering. Central to these are the events surrounding his being dumped as Speaker after the 1998 congressional election by the House Republican Conference. Not only was this a reaction to the loss of seats, but to questions of policy and ethics charges which had swirled around the speaker for most of his term. Let’s remember, his removal was a direct result of Republican members, not Democrats, many of whom owed their very seats to Gingrich. While Newt has been a policy innovator without equal in Washington, it was a failure of leadership on his part not to bring his Republican colleagues along with him. Lastly we cannot overlook Newt’s admitted personal failure to live up to the family values he has made central to his political philosophy in being divorced twice and in both cases he has admitted infidelity as the cause.

While Gingrich has been out of public office since he resigned his seat in the House in 1999 he has had the opportunity to restart his political career on several occasions. With the death of Senator Paul Coverdell (R-GA) in July 2000 and the appointment of Democrat Zell Miller to complete his term, Gingrich could have run for the senate in an open race he surely would have won in 2004, thus bringing his immense legislative talents to the US Senate. Alternatively he could have sought the Governors’ office in Georgia in 2002 which would have given him a platform to execute on many of his innovative ideas. Additionally running for either of these offices would have given Newt the opportunity to rehabilitate his political reputation in front of the voters of his home state. Instead he chose to go the way of life in his own Washington think tank. Many factors go into the personal choices to seek higher offices. But the bottom line is Newt Gingrich chose not to reenter electoral politics for more than a decade.

People run for President for many reasons and without question newt Gingrich has earned his place on the debate platforms and will be a serious contender for the nomination. As a former Speaker of the House of Representatives he has the political bona fides most will not be able to equal. Newt lead the conservative revolution and has always been true to his beliefs and convictions and the House Republicans would likely not have suffered the loss of direction which led to their defeat has Gingrich remained as Speaker. Yet his personal record cannot be overlooked as he now seeks the Presidency. More than a decade has passed since Gingrich last held elected office and the politics of today are very different. I truly hope no serious Republican thinks defeating Barak Obama will be easy, it will not. While President Obama has badly misread his mandate and congressional Democrats paid the price in 2010, he remains an adept politician. No incumbent President can be underestimated, especially one who has shown an uncanny ability to say one thing and do another without regret or hesitation, and who has the media as his booster club. All Republicans must keep singular focus on enduring Barak Obama becomes a private citizen ounce again on January 20th, 2013; America would be seriously harmed by a second term for this President. While Newt Gingrich has a central role to play in driving the future of the Republican Party, unfortunately it will not be as the 45th President of the United States.

John Boehner: Leading the Republican Fight Over Increasing the Debt Ceiling

Gordon Olivant

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May 10, 2011

Republican House Speaker John Boehner Adressing the Economic Club of New York

I must admit that for much of the last decade I have had little faith in the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives. It was that group who during the bush years lost touch with the basic principles of restrained government and fiscal responsibility which had defined Republicans for much of the last 50 years since Barry Goldwater redefined what it was to be a Conservative Republican. The American People did not forget and in 2006 and 2008 sent a clear message of disapproval. Fortunately the Democrats misread the message badly and in 2010 the voters gave them a good old fashioned butt kicking. Yet with the new Republican majority in power one question remained; would the new House leadership really have the courage of their convictions t maintain the course, and the political skill and strength to execute. Today it seems the republican leadership under Speaker John Boehner may just be the team t take on the liberal expansionists in the Obama administration and their tax and spend agenda.

Some of the vocal protesters on the extreme right howled in outrage when Speaker Boehner agreed to the budget deal that prevented a government shutdown a month ago. Just as important he prevented a repeat of the 1995 shutdown which the Democrats and their friends in the media used with great effect against Newt Gingrich. However in making that deal Boehner not only extracted billions more in cuts than anyone realistically expected, he changed to debate in Washington to not what new spending programs the Leftists could pass, to a singular focus on where to cut spending. Even President Obama offered an anemic and ill conceived deficit cutting plan. This change in the debate is big stuff! Rep Paul Ryan has offered the first comprehensive plan to realistically take on the looming debt crisis and while this plan is unlikely to be enacted as presented, it is the starting point for the debate. If the House Republican Conference maintains its resolve they can reign in the Obama spending machine.

Yesterday in his speech to the Economic Club of New York, Speaker Boehner laid out a strategy which is likely to result in a sea-change in the direction of Washington’s spending practices. For decades the debt limit has been raised with nothing but the token speeches from members outraged at the level of the debt before they immediately pass the increase in the ceiling. However, by linking the increase in the ceiling to “trillions” of dollars of cuts in spending, Boehner has set up a confrontation with President Obama which is very different. While failure to pass a budget can result is the draconian scene of a government shutdown, failing to raise the debt ceiling would force the President to make choices as to which parts of the government to close. Since the president would continue to have tax revenues to cover approximately 62 percent of government spending, critical services would continue uninterrupted. For the first time we would be focused on what we really can fund within our means. While these kinds of confrontations are no way to run a government, it is an effective means of holding the Obama Administration to debt cutting targets. The lower the incremental increase in the debt ceiling, the more frequent the opportunity to verify the effects. This is a means for the Republicans to define and control the debate, not to be the boogieman for the Leftists and their friends in the media.

The key to this is the ability of House Republicans to hold the line and communicate their message to the American people in an effectively and with resolve. For the first time in a decade I am optimistic that in Speaker John Boehner we have a leader who can effectively manage the Washington power structure yet still remain true to our principles and values. At the same time those of us on the right need to be supportive of this effort and leave the circular firing squads to the Leftists. The debt is the fight of this generation and the economic future of America rests on our ability to rein in spending and restore fiscal discipline to the federal government. With John Boehner’s speech it seems the fight has been joined. Now we must hold the line.

The Next Frontier: Outsourcing Spaceflight to China

Gordon Olivant

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May 7, 2011

In the wake of its decision last year to cancel NASA’s Constellation Program, the planned successor to the Space Shuttle Program which would have taken American astronauts back to the Moon and Mars, the Obama administration has decided to engage the Chinese government as a partner on civil space flight. In congressional testimony on May 4^th, White House Science advisor John Holdren indicated a near term process to partner with China on future spaceflights including potential Moon and Mars missions as reported in space.com.

The decision to cancel the Constellation Project has left America dependent upon renting space on Russian Soyuz spacecraft to get to the International Space Station (which was funded more than 2/3 by the US) pending private space craft development which has been dramatically underfunded by the Obama Administration. Now he proposes to cooperate with the Chinese government on human exploration. For 50 years America has been the clear leader in human spaceflight, however with the policies of the Obama administration we are forfeiting that lead at warp speed. Not only has this been a source of national pride, it has been a driver of considerable economic and technological development. It seems American leadership on all fronts is contrary to Obama Administration policy. One can only hope that the Congress can stop the outsourcing and dismantling of our space program until the American people issue President Obama’s pink slip effective January 20, 2013.

Is 2012 Rudy Giuliani’s Year?

Gordon Olivant

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May 5, 2011

Rudy Giuliani, 107th Mayor of New York

Tonight the 2012 Republican race for the White House unofficially begins with the first Presidential Debate from South Carolina being broadcast on Fox News. Perhaps most notable about this year’s race is how few candidates have actually entered the race and those who have not such as presumptive front runner Mitt Romney. The state of the Republican race may be best characterized by the rise of Donald Trump in the polls, a man Sen. Rand Paul has asked to provide proof he really is a Republican (a very good question).

I was recently asked by a family friend what I thought about the Tea Party, a question that is far harder to answer than at first it may appear. My first response was what Tea Party? Part of the strength of the movement which in no small way propelled the Republican Party back to power in 2010 was it is not a single organized party and derives its strength as a movement from its grass roots strength. This is demonstrated by polls in 2010 which showed a majority of Americans identified with the Tea Party’s principals while a clear majority oppose the tea party itself. The American electorate is tired of expansive government, concerned about the debt crisis and still worried about our national security. This is a Republican electorate. Some of the so called tea party Leaders have seized this movement and have tried to co-opt it for their own personal and largely social conservative purposes. But the contrast between support for the Tea Party core beliefs and the Tea Party itself remains stark.

Into this divide stands ready to enter the 107^thMayor of the City of New York Rudy Giuliani, the man who in 2008 rivaled former Texas Governor John Connelly for the most money spent in order to win a single delegate to the Republican National Convention. However 2012 is a very different year and Giuliani may well be a more rounded and well suited candidate. I have always felt that in 2008 Giuliani was poorly served by his advisors in two respects. First on the purely tactical front waiting for the Florida Primary to begin his formal fight allowed other candidates, notably John McCain to gain such momentum that Giuliani was largely run over by McCain and second place pursuer Mitt Romney. However the second flaw was much more fundamental, the prominence of 9/11 in the campaign of the man dubbed “America’s Mayor” after his performance on that day which can only be described as Churchillian. So why a mistake? His heroic performance that day was not enough and allowed him to be portrayed by his rivals as one dimensional. Besides, no American needed reminding of Rudy’s performance that day, it was seared into the national consciousness.

So why is the door open for a Giuliani candidacy this year? Because to those of us who lived in the New York area during much of his term of Mayor in the 1990’s, his real strength was his ability to make the unmanageable manageable. In 1993 New York was a mess, a fiscal basket case where the streets were under control of the criminals more than the NYPD. Rather than be overwhelmed by the magnitude of the challenge, Giuliani methodically took control one issue at a time. Budgets were cut because for the first time the reality of limited financial recourses were faced. Taxes were cut drawing a renaissance of investment beyond the traditional financal Services sector. Indeed New York became a center for the emerging internet sector leveraging the vast creative base within the city. Law & Order was brought to the city one block at a time and in his two terms as mayor saw the city transformed into the safest large city in the world. Yes, Rudy Giuliani is America’s Mayor for 9/11, but he also led one of the most effective example of fiscal conservatism in the last century.

But isn’t Rudy a social Liberal? That was and will be the stick used by Giuliani’s critics to beat back a 2012 candidacy? Maybe that underlies the ignorance of many of those critics as to the true nature of conservatism. Conservatism is based upon the belief that most issues are best dealt with not by the national government but rather by the level of government closest to those governed, the states and communities themselves. As a Mayor, Giuliani lead the government in New York which most represented the people of New York. A Republican mayor in perhaps the most liberal City in America. And during his term as mayor he likely prevented more abortions than any of the national politicians in congress because as mayor he could address the root cause of the problems. Are results more important than words? I happen to think they are.

This brings us to the key to a Giuliani candidacy in 2012: A Leader When Leadership is required. If I was to advise Rudy on a 2012 run, I would encourage him to never mention 9/11 because it is unneeded, he will always be the leader most associated with that day. Rather I would have him focus on two words, Toughness and Competence. The American people are ahead of the leaders in Washington in recognizing the challenges which face our country. Government spending and the debt have to be brought under control and Giuliani has the best record of any of the current crop of leaders, and far more than the current occupant of the White House. And not a single person doubts Rudy would go to hell and back to defend America. Tough and competent leadership is what the American people crave and so far seem not to have found. While they have flirted with Donald Trump, it may well be in another New Yorker that they find the real deal.

The Debt Battle is Joined

Gordon Olivant

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April 13, 2011

Today we watched President Obama outline his plans for reducing the deficit by $4B over 12 years and we got something different from him for a change, the truth. Gone was the “Change We Can Believe In” and replacing it the hard core leftist Democrat demagoguery and class warfare we have seen since the New Deal. His solution “framework” is to tax the rich otherwise senior citizens will go without healthcare and food. It is all the fault of the Bush tax cuts, which he didn’t mind so much 5 months ago when he signed an extension or his trillion dollar stimulus pork fest. No, the president has seen the way to economic salvation and it is Tax and Spend. Welcome home to leftist land Mister President.

In President Obama’s wonderful world increasing taxes has no negative effect on growth, something he has discovered since he decided in December that extending the Bush tax cuts was essential to maintaining the recovery. He is going to cut an additional $400B from defense, 3 weeks after starting America’s third war in the Middle East. How to make the other cuts? According to The Politico a senior administration official stated “The exact design of that we’d have to work out, obviously.” Working it out is a fine idea, we recommend it strongly.

Ironically the president himself set up a Commission of Deficit Reduction, however when they came back with bipartisan recommendations as to how to reduce the deficit, he chose not to embrace a single recommendation they made. It seems President Obama prefers to live in his imaginary world where economic realities are optional and his Hope is enough. When that fails, he turns to the old democrat standby of class warfare.

The President also set as the official target of leftist attack Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and his dramatic plan to balance the budget by cutting $6 trillion over 10 years, $2 trillion more than the President two years sooner. I have to admit I have concerns over the Ryan plan, especially over the achievability of the cuts in discretionary non-entitlement spending. Yet Representative Ryan is the first person in almost 2 decades to have the courage to put forward a plan which faces the reality of entitlement spending the need to constrain it. Ryan’s plan surly will evolve over time, but he has taken the first real step forward to realistic restraint in Washington.

So the battle over fiscal responsibility is joined and we can only hope that this will be the foundation of the 2012 campaign. The choice will be clear between fiscal responsibility and democrat fear mongering. The American people will have a choice and the future will be dependent on that choice.